Radial Growth of Dahurian Larch (Larix gmelinii) Responses to Climate and Competition

The phenomenon of divergent responses in tree ring radial growth to climate change has been observed in the mid- and high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere amidst global warming. However, the stability of the responses of the primary conifer species to climate factors in the mountainous regions of northeastern China remains unclear. Additionally, it is uncertain whether the radial growth in this area consistently responds to different competition indices. In our study, we developed tree ring width chronologies for Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii) and analysed the radial growth responses to the regional climate from 1980 to 2012. This analysis was conducted by correlating meteorological data from different physiological stages of trees. We also evaluated the reliability of competition indices in predicting tree growth by constructing multiple linear regression models. Furthermore, we explored the relationship between the Basal Area Increment (BAI) of each tree and the competition indices in the sample plot over the previous five years. Our results showed that the temperature during the Non-Structural Carbohydrate (NSC) accumulation period and the NSC consumption period was significantly negatively correlated with the Ring Width Index (RWI) of Dahurian larch. Conversely, the RWI was significantly positively correlated with precipitation during these periods. The Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at any period had a significantly positive correlation with the RWI. These findings suggest that future radial growth is likely to continue to be constrained by rising temperatures and water scarcity. Our findings also demonstrated that radial growth was less negatively impacted by competition from nearby trees and more influenced by the initial size of the tree. Compared to models that included other indices, models that included the BAL index as a single explanatory variable demonstrated superior statistical effectiveness. Our research suggests that before evaluating the competitive effects of the neighbourhood on radial growth, it is necessary to consider the stand diversity of tree species and the parameters related to spatial structure when selecting an appropriate competition index.