Are migrants leaving manufacturing jobs? Exploring manufacturing employment change among migrants and the factors in Chinese cities

Manufacturing employment has been a popular choice among migrants in Chinese cities in recent decades. However, the decline in manufacturing employment among migrants has emerged as a significant phenomenon during the ongoing industrial transformation. This study utilizes data from the Floating Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey (CMDS) in 2011 and 2018 to investigate the variations in manufacturing employment change among migrants across 184 sample Chinese cities. By examining migrant group change and urban development factors, empirical models are developed to explore the underlying mechanisms. The findings reveal substantial disparities in the percentage change of migrants engaged in manufacturing among the sample cities. Many large cities experience a decline in this percentage, but most small and medium-sized cities witness the opposite trend. While the changes in the structure of migrants explain these variations, the urban employment transformations, including shifts in manufacturing employment opportunities and structural changes, and wage growth in the service employment, play a more significant role. This study illuminates diverse employment choices among migrants in different cities, emphasizing the profound impacts of urban development contexts. It may provide valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of migrant employment in an industrial transformation context.