Unraveling Temporal Shifts in Drivers and Ecosystem Services in a Large Lake Ecosystem

Freshwaters provide essential ecosystem services (ESS) to humanity. However, most studies on freshwater ESS focus on a few services and ignore temporal changes in driver-ESS relationships. Using graph-based visualization, we examine co-occurrence patterns among drivers and among ESS across characteristic sociopolitical eras in the history of the largest shallow lake in Central and Eastern Europe (Lake Balaton, Hungary). We also evaluate driver-ESS relationships to characterize whether there are distinct clusters in these relationships, which can help to better understand how the different types of drivers influence provisioning, regulating, and cultural ESS and basic ecological functions of the lake. The analyses revealed that Lake Balaton suffers from several alteration effects, which are frequently cited as top threatening drivers in the decline of the ecological integrity and ESS of lake ecosystems. Of these, eutrophication, the spread of invasive species, fishery, urbanization processes, and, recently, the effects of climate change were the most important. Despite these threats, the lake still maintains diverse ESS, which are in complex relationship with each other and their drivers. We highlight that major past environmental changes substantially influence present and forecasted future patterns of driver-ESS relationships. Based on these results, we discuss the possibilities of management to ensure the sustainability of ESS Lake Balaton provides to society. Overall, this study underscores the complex influence of various drivers on freshwater ESS and emphasizes the importance of understanding temporal changes in human-modified lakes, considering societal, ecological, and economic factors comprehensively.