Grading of Aortic Valve Calcification Severity and Risk Stratification in Aortic Stenosis

BACKGROUND: Thresholds of aortic valve calcification (AVC) to define hemodynamically moderate aortic stenosis (AS) from mild are lacking. We aimed to establish a novel grading classification of AVC as quantified by computed tomography and determine its prognostic value. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study included 915 patients with at least mild AS (mean age 70 +/- 12 years, 30% women) from a multicenter prospective registry. All patients underwent Doppler-echocardiography and noncontrast computed tomography within 3 months. Primary end point was the occurrence of all-cause death. Receiver operating characteristic curves analyses were used to determine the sensitivity and specificity of sex-specific thresholds of AVC to identify hemodynamically moderate AS. Optimal thresholds (ie, with best sensitivity/specificity) of AVC to distinguish moderate (aortic valve area 1.0-1.5 cm(2 )and mean gradient 20-39 mm Hg) from mild AS (aortic valve area >1.5 cm(2) and mean gradient <20 mm Hg) were AVC >= 360 arbitrary units in women and >= 1037 arbitrary units in men. Based on the guidelines' thresholds for severe AS and the new thresholds in our study for moderate AS, 312 (34%) patients had mild, 253 (28%) moderate, and 350 (38%) severe AVC. During a mean follow-up of 5.6 +/- 3.9 years, 183 (27%) deaths occurred. In Cox multivariable models, AVC remained associated with an increased risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio per grade increase, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.53-2.56]; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A novel grading classification of anatomic AS severity based on sex-specific thresholds of AVC provides significant prognostic value for predicting mortality. These findings support the complementarity of computed tomography-calcium scoring to Doppler-echocardiography to corroborate AS severity and enhance risk stratification in patients with AS.