Influence of geological uncertainty and soil spatial variability on tunnel deformation and their importance evaluation

In geotechnical engineering, geological uncertainty and the inherent spatial variability of soil properties are two primary sources of uncertainty, significantly impacting embedded geo-structures. While the influence of the soil spatial variability and geological uncertainty has been separately investigated, the coupling effect of these two types of uncertainties on tunnel is still limited. Meanwhile, little effort has been devoted to quantifying the degree of importance of these two types of uncertainties. This study quantitatively evaluates the effects of geological uncertainty and soil spatial variability on tunnels, and first assess the importance of these two uncertainties based on a novel approach. Improved coupled Markov chain model was utilized to simulate the geological uncertainty based on sparse and limited boreholes. The coefficient of variation (COV) was adopted to characterize the different levels of soil spatial variability in this study. The results illuminated the role of geological uncertainty and spatial variability in tunnel probabilistic analysis by comparing different boreholes schemes and COV. In addition, the geological uncertainty index (GUI) was presented to quantitatively estimate the degree of uncertainty in the simulated strata. A novel approach for evaluating the significance of geological uncertainty and soil spatial variability on tunnel was proposed. Based on the Kendall correlation coefficient, the classification was also given, divided into high, strong, moderate, weak and no correlation. The geological uncertainty should be considered in high and strong correlation groups. Both two types of uncertainties should be simultaneously taken into account in moderate and weak correlation divisions.