Modeling Fallout from Nuclear Weapon Detonations: Efficient Activity and Dose Calculation of Radionuclides and Their Progeny

The purpose of this paper is to present a practical method for quick determination of potential radiological doses and contaminations by fallout from nuclear detonations, or other releases, that includes the contributions from all nuclides. We precalculate individual (total) activities of all radionuclides from any initial cocktail and all their ingrowing progeny at a set of pinpoints in time with a logarithmic time-spacing. This is combined with the set of dose conversion factors (DCC) for any exposure pathway to obtain a time-dependent cocktail for the whole release as if it is one substance. An atmospheric dispersion model then provides the thinning coefficient of the released material to give local concentrations and dose rates. Progeny ingrowth is illustrated for pure 238U and for a nuclear reactor that has been shut down. Efficient dose assessment is demonstrated for fallout from nuclear detonations and compared with the traditional approach of preselecting nuclides for specific endpoints and periods-of-interest. The compound cocktail DCC reduces the assessment of contaminations and potential dose-effects from fallout after a nuclear detonation to (the atmospheric dispersion of) only one tracer substance, representing any cocktail of nuclides and their progeny. This removes the need to follow all separate nuclides or an endpoint-specific preselection of "most important nuclides." As the cocktail DCCs can be precalculated and the atmospheric dispersion of only one tracer substance has to be modelled, our method is fast. The model for calculating cocktail DCCs is freely available, easily coupled to any regular atmospheric dispersion model, and therefore ready for operational use by others.