Evaluation of the Impacts of On-Demand Bus Services Using Traffic Simulation

This paper uses smart card data from Melbourne's public transport network to model and evaluate the impacts of a flexible on-demand transport system. On-demand transport is an emerging mode of urban passenger transport that relies on meeting passenger demand for travel using dynamic and flexible scheduling using shared vehicles. Initially, a simulation model was developed to replicate existing fixed-schedule bus performance and was then extended to incorporate on-demand transport services within the same network. The simulation results were used to undertake a comparative analysis which included reliability, service quality, operational efficiency, network-wide effectiveness, and environmental impacts. The results showed that on-demand buses reduced average passenger trip time by 30%, increased vehicle occupancy rates from 8% to over 50%, and reduced emissions per passenger by over 70% on an average weekday compared to fixed-schedule buses. This study also offers insights for successful on-demand transport implementation, promoting urban sustainability. It also outlines future research directions, particularly the need for accurate short-term passenger demand prediction to improve service provision and passenger experience.