Pistachio Production Quantity Estimate 2022-2030: Evidence from Leading Countries and Türkiye Using the ARIMA Model

This study analyzed the trends in pistachio production from 2022 to 2030 using the ARIMA model. Models such as (2,1,1) for the United States, (1,1,1) for China, (1,1,6) for Iran, (1,1,2) for Syria, (1,1,1) for T & uuml;rkiye, (1,2,1) for the world, and (1,1,1) for other regions were preferred. A continuous increasing trend in global production is observed until 2030. Notably, the analysis indicates an increase in production for the United States after 2019, while Iran is projected to experience limited growth compared with the United States after 2018. T & uuml;rkiye, on the other hand, faced a significant decline in 2019. The graphs highlight a substantial global production decrease in 2019, attributed to the pandemic, affecting countries worldwide as well as leading countries. T & uuml;rkiye and Syria exhibit a similar increasing trend in production after 2019. According to the findings, T & uuml;rkiye is anticipated to demonstrate an increasing trend in pistachio production in the coming years. This positive development suggests that Turkish pistachio producers have the potential to expand their market share and offer consumers more economical prices. However, it should be noted that the potential increase may lead to heightened supply in the market and a potential decrease in pistachio prices, affecting the income of producers. In this context, careful measures should be taken to ensure a sustainable production balance. The results of this study, demonstrating how global crises like the pandemic impact the agricultural sector, underscore the vital importance of preventive policies. Therefore, taking proactive measures against crises in the agricultural sector is crucial for minimizing potential risks in production, consumption, and international trade.