Changes in Incidence of Cirrhotic and Noncirrhotic Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the United States

Introduction: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurs most often in a background of cirrhosis. Patients with noncirrhotic HCC represent a distinct population, which has been characterized in single-center studies, but has not been fully evaluated on a population level in the United States. Materials and methods: HCC cases from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results diagnosed between 2000 and 2020 were categorized as cirrhotic or noncirrhotic. Clinical and pathologic factors, age-adjusted incidence rates (AAIR), and the overall HCC-specific survival were compared between groups. Results: There were 18,592 patients with cirrhosis (80.4%) and 4545 without (19.6%). AAIRs for noncirrhotic HCC remained relatively unchanged from 2010 to 2020, with a mean incidence of 0.35 per 100,000. The AAIR for cirrhotic HCC declined from 1.59 to 0.85 per 100,000 during the same period. Patients with cirrhosis were younger (median age 62 versus 65 y, P < 0.001). Patients without cirrhosis, compared to those with cirrhosis, were less likely to have elevated alpha fetoprotein (53.9% versus 62.0%, P < 0.001), had larger tumors (median tumor size 5.0 versus 3.5 cm, P < 0.001), presented more frequently with localized disease (59.9% versus 55.8%, P < 0.001), were more likely to undergo surgery (OR 2.21, 95% CI 2.07-2.36), and had better HCCspecific survival (median 40 versus 27 mo, P < 0.001). Conclusions: The relative increase in the proportion of noncirrhotic HCC in the Untied States may be due to a decline in the incidence of cirrhotic HCC. Patients with noncirrhotic HCC have larger tumors, are more likely to undergo surgical resection, and have improved cancer-specific survival.