Slope reliability assessment using an innovative critical failure path approach

Slope instability, driven by factors such as rainfall, seismic activity, and human influence, presents a pervasive hazard worldwide. Timely assessment of slope stability and accurate identification of its most critical slip surface are important for slope safety early warning and management. Currently, for the slope reliability analysis by the strength reduction method (SRM), the critical failure path is approximately determined through visualization techniques, which is not sufficiently precise. Therefore, this study proposes a critical failure search method based on SRM for slope reliability analysis, aiming to accurately identify the critical slip surface. The critical failure path is considered as the path with the maximum plastic dissipative energy density (PDED) and is searched in the constructed weighted graph based on the dissipated energy of the slope. This proposed method is further applied with an engineering slope to find the critical failure path and assess its reliability during and after construction. The searched critical failure path lies within the approximate range obtained through conventional visualization methods. Finally, a reliability prediction model consisting of time, rainfall, and deformation component is further constructed, which allows rapid estimation of the slope reliability through available monitor data. The results of reliability analysis indicate that construction disturbances have a significant impact on slope stability, along with other factors such as rainfall and creep.