Simulating the Long-Term Response of Forest Succession to Climate Change in the Boreal Forest of Northern Ontario, Canada

被引:0
|
作者
Larocque, Guy R. [1 ]
Bell, F. Wayne [2 ]
Searle, Eric B. [2 ]
Mayor, Stephen J. [2 ]
Schiks, Thomas [2 ]
Kalantari, Parvin [1 ]
机构
[1] Nat Resources Canada, Laurentian Forestry Ctr, Canadian Forest Serv, 1055 PEPS,POB 10380,Stn St Foy, Quebec City, PQ G1V 4C7, Canada
[2] Ontario Minist Nat Resources, Ontario Forest Res Inst, 1235 Queen St E, Sault Ste Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada
来源
FORESTS | 2024年 / 15卷 / 08期
关键词
gap model; boreal forest; climate change; forest modeling; growth and yield; GROWTH-RESPONSES; PINUS-BANKSIANA; BIOMASS TRAITS; BLACK SPRUCE; YIELD MODELS; GAP MODELS; TREE; CO2; PRODUCTIVITY; CHALLENGES;
D O I
10.3390/f15081417
中图分类号
S7 [林业];
学科分类号
0829 ; 0907 ;
摘要
The effect of climate change on forest dynamics is likely to increase in importance in the forthcoming decades. For this reason, it is essential to predict the extent to which changes in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 might affect the development of forest ecosystems and successional pathways. The gap model ZELIG-CFS was used to simulate the potential long-term effects of climate change on species-specific annual change in mean basal area and stand density under two scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP), 4.5 and 8.5, for the boreal forest region of Ontario, Canada, where mean temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 are expected to increase. Forest ecosystems in this boreal region included pure and mixed stands of black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.), paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.), balsam fir (Abies balsamea [L.] Mill.), jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.), trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss), northern white cedar (Thuja occidentalis L.), American larch (Larix laricina [Du Roi] K. Koch), and balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera L.). Simulation results under climate change generally predicted a decline in the basal area and stand density for black spruce, balsam fir, jack pine, and white spruce, but an increase for paper birch, trembling aspen, American larch, and balsam poplar. However, the extent of change differed regionally among species. Forest composition is expected to change over the long term. Simulation results indicated that shade-intolerant deciduous and conifer species will increase their dominance over the 100-year time horizon. This transition toward the increasing presence of deciduous forests is likely explained by more favorable temperature conditions for their growth and development.
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页数:23
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