Typology analysis of Egyptian agricultural households reveals increasing income diversification and abandonment of agricultural activities

CONTEXT: Egyptian agriculture is challenged by increasing demands from a rapidly expanding population, and insufficient water and arable land resources, exacerbated by the expected impact of climate change further reducing these resources. Recent government policy has focused on large projects to meet increasing demand, with a reduced focus on the livelihoods and economic sustainability of low-income farmers. Insights into variations and changes within the farming population are needed to improve the effectiveness of policies to meet these challenges. OBJECTIVE: This research aims to understand the heterogeneity within farming households in Egypt, to determine the characteristics which best describe these variations, and to trace developments within the sector over recent years and their dependencies on contextual factors. METHODS: We performed a typology analysis based on the 2012 and 2018 Egyptian labour market panel surveys, identifying and using 12 categorical and 31 continuous variables to describe farming households. Highly skewed continuous variables were transformed, and highly correlated variables were removed. Subsequently, a factor analysis was carried out to determine which variables contribute the most to variation within the dataset. Hierarchical clustering was used to identify the number of clusters and a cluster analysis was carried out to define the clusters. The evolution of the clusters was determined by tracking the households present in both surveys and determining how their type changed between the two surveys. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The variables which contributed the most to the variation within the household population were the degree of income diversification, cropping intensity, and water use per unit area. The clustering analysis resulted in four clusters being identified, which were specialised farming, village farming, diversified income, and landlord households. High levels of abandonment of farming were identified, with 45% of households abandoning agricultural activity in 2018 having participated in agriculture in 2012. There was a clear trend towards greater income diversification with 59% of households new to farming in 2018 being part of the diversified income household cluster. The analysis demonstrates a clear trend away from dependence on agricultural income, presenting risks to the sustainability of small-holder farming. SIGNIFICANCE: Using the characteristics of the household types, this research presents policymakers with the opportunity to simulate responses to policies targeting greater water use efficiency, and increased income for the lowest-income households, and investigate how to meet increasing demand most efficiently. Additionally, it reinforces the global trend towards reduced participation in agricultural activities due to environmental and socioeconomic challenges.