Seismic capacity models for earth dams and their use in developing fragility curves

This article develops seismic capacity models for earth dams and demonstrates how the proposed seismic capacity models may be used to develop seismic fragility curves that predict the probability of damage as a function of ground shaking intensity. Developing earth dam fragility curves requires two major components: (1) a seismic capacity model that predicts the probability of a damage state given the relative settlement (RS) and (2) an engineering demand model that predicts the RS as a function of ground motion intensity. While seismic demand models for earth dams have been studied by various researchers, there is a scarcity of seismic capacity models. This article focuses first on developing seismic capacity relationships using a dataset of earthquake case histories of dam performance. Different from previously developed relationships, only the damage description for each dam is used when assigning the damage state, which results in statistical variability in the capacity relationship between the damage state and RS. The fragility curve development is demonstrated by combining the seismic capacity relationships with a seismic demand model for RS derived from nonlinear, dynamic finite element analyses for a 20-m generic dam geometry subjected to a suite of earthquake motions from the NGA-West2 database.