From protagonist to laggard, from pariah to phoenix: Emergence, decline, and re-emergence of Brazilian climate change policy, 2003-2023

Brazil is a major greenhouse gas emitter and is highly vulnerable to climate change. Amazonian deforestation control 2005-2012 and a comprehensive national climate change adaptation plan in 2016 created opportunities for consistent climate action. Yet, subsequent administrations reversed this progress, turning the country into a laggard. President Lula is reviving the national climate agenda. In this article, we use the traditional framework of interests, institutions, and ideas to examine Brazilian climate politics and policies of the past decade, focusing on the country's major emitting sectors and adaptation plans. We identify the factors that hindered the achievement of Brazil's climate goals from the early 2010s to 2022 and investigate Lula's new mandate. Brazil currently shows renewed proclimate momentum, especially in Amazon deforestation control, but hurdles persist, including resistance from Congress, fossil fuel focus, financial frailties, and an uncertain foreign policy.