Does the left-digit bias affect prices in financial markets?

被引:1
|
作者
Heraud, Florian [1 ]
Page, Lionel [2 ]
机构
[1] Queensland Univ Technol, Brisbane, Australia
[2] Univ Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
关键词
REGRESSION-DISCONTINUITY DESIGNS; PREDICTION MARKETS; PENNY WISE; INFORMATION; EFFICIENCY; HYPOTHESIS; FOOLISH;
D O I
10.1016/j.jebo.2023.10.012
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
According to the left-digit bias, people pay more attention to the leftmost digits of a number and tend to disregard the last digits of that number. We investigate whether this bias affects traders' perception and pricing in a large financial market trading foreign exchange options. Our theoretical model predicts that the left-digit bias affects prices, causing a discontinuous jump in expected returns when comparing markets at threshold prices 10, , 20, , ... , 90 with markets at prices just below these thresholds, such as 9 . 9 , 19.99, . 99, etc. The model predicts no discontinuity in returns among unbiased traders. Using a regression discontinuity approach over the returns of more than 1 million options, we find significant discontinuities in the expected returns, consistent with mispricing induced by the left-digit bias.
引用
收藏
页码:20 / 29
页数:10
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