Deep learning-based quantitative analyses of feedback in the land-atmosphere interactions over the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

During the past several decades, the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) has experienced many severe droughts, resulting in significant impacts on both agriculture and aquaculture. In the evolution and intensification of droughts, local feedbacks in the Land-Atmosphere (LA) interactions were considered to play a crucial role. It is critical to quantify the impact of LA variables on drought processes and severity with the feedback loop of water and energy balances (e.g., soil moisture-latent and sensible heat-precipitation). In this study, a deep learning model, named Long- and Short-term Time-series Network (LSTNet), was applied to simulate the LA interactions over the VMD. With the ERA5 data as modelling inputs, the role of each key variable (e.g., soil moisture, sensible and latent heat) in the LA interactions over the period of 2011-2020 was quantified, and the variations of their inter-relationships in the future period (2015-2099) were also investigated based on the CMIP6 data. The LSTNet model has demonstrated that the deep learning algorithm can effectively capture the relative importance of key variables in the LA interactions. We found that it is crucial to evaluate the effects of soil moisture and sensible heat on the LA interactions, particularly in the dry periods when negative anomalies in soil moisture and sensible heat would significantly reduce the amount of precipitation. In addition, the decline in soil moisture and the rise in sensible heat are anticipated to further diminish precipitation in the future under the changing climate.