Spatio-temporal evolution, driving mechanisms, and simulation of land use and cover in China from 2000 to 2060

Increasingly frequent land evolution in China seriously impacts the sustainable supply of ecosystem services as well as the economy's steady and sustainable growth. Driven by physiographic, socioeconomic, and transportation accessibility factors, China has experienced significant mutual changes among gra ssland, forest, unused land, and cropland over the past 20 years, particularly before 2010. Projections for 2030 and 2060 indicate an increase in cropland, accompanied by a degradation of forest and grassland. Future land changes will vary under different policy scenarios. Specifically, the source of urbanization land will shift from cropland to grassland if cropland is protected, whereas cropland areas will continue to decrease under the environmental preservation scenario. In the future, China should maintain agricultural policies based on cropland protection and the ecological restoration policy that places an emphasis on natural restoration. These findings provide a reference for achieving sustainable land development.