Environmental decentralisation, environmental regulation, and agricultural carbon intensity: an empirical study based on Chinese provincial panel data

Agricultural carbon emission reduction is inseparable from discussions about government systems, especially in countries with distinctive institutional arrangements such as China. Environmental regulation may influence the impact of environmental decentralisation on agricultural carbon intensity. Using panel data from 30 provinces in mainland China from 2000 to 2015, this paper depicts the spatiotemporal pattern and dynamic evolution of environmental decentralisation, environmental regulation, and agricultural carbon intensity. It uses the spatial Durbin model to empirically study the internal connections between the three. The empirical results show that the enhancement of environmental decentralisation, environmental administrative decentralisation, environmental supervision decentralisation, and environmental monitoring decentralisation is not conducive to reducing agricultural carbon intensity. The results also show that the enhancement of the intensity of environmental regulation of "terminal governance type" and "front-end governance type" is conducive to reducing agricultural carbon intensity, but this effect has a negative "space spillover" phenomenon. Other findings are as follows: (1) the enhancement of the two types of environmental regulation intensity is conducive to changing the impact of environmental decentralisation on agricultural carbon intensity from a "grabbing-hand" to a "helping-hand"; (2) compared with balanced grain-producing and marketing areas and major grain-marketing areas, environmental decentralisation and two types of environmental regulations have a greater negative impact on the agricultural carbon intensity of major grain-producing areas. Therefore, the central government should change how it evaluates political performance; accelerate the construction of a diversified performance evaluation system; increase the weight of low-carbon, green, and other indicators that reflect the friendly development of agriculture in the system; and encourage local governments to adjust the direction of agricultural production.