A novel probabilistic load shifting approach for demand side management of residential users

Demand side management is a beneficial set of techniques which leads improving consumption profile of residential users. Practice of dynamic pricing and appropriate shifting of electrical appliances at home are important tasks at that point. In this study, a novel probabilistic load shifting strategy is proposed and its beneficial effects on economic and technical parameters are demonstrated. For that purpose, a survey on energy consumption is applied for residential users and its results are used for creating a probabilistic model. 300 virtual residents are created in this way and a probabilistic simulation technique is developed. Next, the developed simulation technique is applied for creation of the monthly consumption data. Finally, it is demonstrated that electricity bills are decreased significantly when the proposed approach is applied. Besides that, peak-to-average ratio which is calculated by considering all residential users is also decreased as a result. In conclusion, when the results are compared with the ones of conventional constant tariff, time-of-use tariff with three time zones and a deterministic load shifting strategy, it is observed that the best results of economic and technical parameters in question are achieved by using the proposed probabilistic load shifting strategy together with dynamic pricing mechanism involved.