Opportunities of hydrogen and ammonia trade between Europe and MENA

This paper examines the potential role of hydrogen and ammonia in the European energy transition to reach netzero greenhouse gas targets. We analyse trade of green hydrogen and ammonia between Europe and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), since the latter possesses a high potential for solar power, making it a possible low-cost supplier of these two clean energy carriers. The economic attractiveness of such trade depends on the additional infrastructure and transportation costs required for the roll-out of these clean energy carriers. Using a global integrated assessment model, TIAM-ECN, we evaluate the trade-off between costs and benefits of establishing import-export links between Europe and MENA for hydrogen and ammonia. Our study assumes the availability of hydrogen pipelines from North Africa to Europe, and of liquefied hydrogen and ammonia shipping from the Middle East to Europe. We find that MENA could realize cost savings of over 6% by 2050 through hydrogen and ammonia trade. Furthermore, despite the availability of gaseous green hydrogen from North Africa (via pipelines), for Europe the import of liquefied green hydrogen and ammonia from MENA (through shipping) can also be economically viable. Although this trade could generate cost savings of 40 billion dollars per year by 2050, we conclude that for Europe import diversity, rather than cost savings, could become the main factor driving hydrogen and ammonia imports.