Expectations, sentiments and capital flows to emerging market economies

被引：0

作者：

Beckmann, Joscha ^{[1
,2
]}

Boonman, Tjeerd M. ^{[3
]}

Schreiber, Sven ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Fernuniv, Kiel Inst World Econ, Univ Str 11, Hagen, Germany

[2] SGH Warsaw Sch Econ, Univ Str 11, Hagen, Germany

[3] Monmouth Univ, Leon Hess Business Sch, 400 Cedar Ave, West Long Branch, NJ 07764 USA

[4] Fernuniv, Univ Str 11, Hagen, Germany

来源：

EMERGING MARKETS REVIEW | 2024年 / 62卷

关键词：

Portfolio capital inflows; Analyst forecasts; News sentiments; Dispersion; Emerging market economies; STOCK RETURN PREDICTABILITY; BAYESIAN MODEL SELECTION; HETEROSKEDASTICITY; UNCERTAINTY; INVESTMENT; DYNAMICS; PUSH;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ememar.2024.101172

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

This paper provides a novel look at capital flow determinants by assessing the role of expectations and media sentiments. Analyzing eight emerging market economies, we assess the effects of macroeconomic expectations and disagreement among professionals and various media-based sentiment indicators. Our results show that survey and sentiment indicators which are available in real time contain useful information about capital flow dynamics which go beyond the effects of conventional push and pull factors for all countries we analyze. News sentiment related to the exchange rate have the strongest effects on capital flows. Finally, we identify substantial heterogeneity across countries.

引用

页数：16

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