Predicting factors for early failure of vascular access in hemodialysis patients

Purpose: This study aimed to investigate the incidence of early failure of vascular access for hemodialysis, and determine which factors measured in duplex ultrasound study could predict early failure. Methods: We performed a retrospective review of patients who underwent arteriovenous fistula (AVF) or arteriovenous graft (AVG) creation for hemodialysis between September 2019 and January 2023. Early failure was defined as any event that required surgical or endovascular intervention within 6 months following AVF or AVG creation. Results: A total of 189 patients were included. Early failure occurred in 36 patients (19.0%), which included 22 AVFs and 14 AVGs. In the patients who underwent AVF, the preoperative venous diameter, postoperative venous and arterial diameters, and flow volume of AVF all were significantly smaller in the early failure group compared to the patent group. In AVG, the preoperative venous diameter was the only parameter that differed between the 2 groups. A sonographic score was defined based on these factors. In a multivariable analysis, male sex, a previous history of AVF or AVG creation, and sonographic score were found to be significantly associated with early failure. The postoperative venous diameter in AVF and the preoperative venous diameter in AVG were highly predictive of early failure (areas under the curves 0.92 and 0.82, respectively). Conclusion: Venous diameter measured 6 weeks following AVF operation and preoperative venous diameter in AVG were highly predictive of early failure among the duplex ultrasound parameters. Surveillance strategies in the early phase following vascular access creation can be based on these factors.