An analysis of urban sprawl growth and prediction using remote sensing and machine learning techniques

This study examines urban growth to support sustainability by investigating urban sprawl in the Vila Velha Urban Agglomeration (UA). If the spatial area of Vila Velha UA increases by 24.36%, from 22.98 km(2) in 1994 to 51.64 km(2) in 2024, urban sprawl may affect surrounding areas. Landsat satellite images from 1994, 2004, 2014, and 2024 were analyzed to study the spatiotemporal pattern of urban growth. Shannon's entropy index identified urban sprawl in Vila Velha UA. The QGIS software's MOLUSCE (Modules for Land Use Change Simulations) plug-in, utilizing Cellular Automata (CA) and Artificial Neural Network-Multi Layer Perceptron (ANN-MLP) models, forecasted urban expansion for 2034. The built-up area is projected to increase from 51.64 km(2) in 2024 to 62.31 km(2) in 2034. Shannon's entropy index indicated a high rate of urban sprawl. Remote sensing and machine learning techniques are crucial for understanding spatial trends, forecasting future expansion, and informing sustainable urban planning. These methods facilitate an accurate assessment of urbanization dynamics, aiding in developing strategies to manage and mitigate sprawl's adverse impacts. This study offers a unique approach to defining urban growth, emphasizing the need for zoning regulations, green space conservation, and infrastructure development to curb urban sprawl and promote sustainable growth in Vila Velha.