Serum growth differentiation factor 15 is a novel biomarker with high predictive capability for liver cancer occurrence in patients with MASLD regardless of liver fibrosis

Background and Aims: Although metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) patients with a Fib-4 index >1.3 are recommended for fibrosis evaluation via elastography or biopsy, a more convenient method identifying high-risk populations requiring follow-up is needed. We explored the utility of serum levels of growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF15), a cell stress-responsive cytokine related to metabolic syndrome, for stratifying the risk of clinical events in MASLD patients. Methods: Serum GDF15 levels were measured in 518 biopsy-performed MASLD patients, 216 MASLD patients for validation, and 361 health checkup recipients with MASLD. Results: In the biopsy-MASLD cohort, multivariate analysis indicated that the serum GDF15 level was a risk factor for liver cancer, independent of the fibrosis stage or Fib-4 index. Using a GDF15 cutoff of 1.75 ng/mL based on the Youden index, high-GDF15 patients, regardless of fibrosis status, had a higher liver cancer incidence rate. While patients with a Fib-4 index <1.3 or low-GDF15 rarely developed liver cancer, high-GDF15 patients with a Fib-4 index >1.3 developed liver cancer and decompensated liver events at significantly higher rates and had poorer prognoses. In the validation cohort, high-GDF15 patients had significantly higher incidences of liver cancer and decompensated liver events and poorer prognoses than low-GDF15 patients, whether limited to high-Fib-4 patients. Among health checkup recipients with MASLD, 23.0% had a Fib-4 index >1.3, 2.7% had a Fib-4 index >1.3 and >1.75 ng/mL GDF15. Conclusions: Serum GDF15 is a biomarker for liver cancer with high predictive capability and is useful for identifying MASLD patients requiring regular surveillance.