Estimating the as-built thermal performance of dwellings using simulated on-board data: From ideal to limited monitoring

Advancement in non -intrusive monitoring of energy usage in households presents an ideal opportunity to get insight into the as -built performance of buildings and assess performance indicators such as the Heat Loss Coefficient (HLC) of the building fabric. The availability of in -use monitored data contributes to bridging the energy performance gap while avoiding costly and exhaustive dedicated measurement campaigns. Methodologies to assess the building performance by combining on -board monitoring and statistical data -driven models are widely accepted. However, their unsupervised and automated applicability on a large scale, with limited data and no insight into the building characteristics and occupants ' behaviour still needs to be investigated. Therefore, this work aims at assessing the reliability and performance of statistical black -box AutoRegressive with eXogenous input (ARX) models on artificial measurement campaigns starting from idealistic setups and progressing towards limited ones. In this investigation, the uncertainty in the estimate inherited from inputs, such as different heat sources or weather data, and their post -processing is combined with the uncertainty originating from different monitoring packages, which results in a thorough overview of the statistical modelling limitations. Results show that disaggregation of the final heating usage poses a major challenge. In cases where gross gas usage is measured, and the system efficiency and domestic hot water consumption are not taken into account, the HLC can deviate by 49% in low -performing houses and by 106% in well -performing houses. However, by applying data pre-processing methods the discrepancy can be lowered to 8% and 23% respectively, but with high uncertainty. On the other hand, the installation of an additional heat meter could yield deviations from the target of 26% for low -performing and 11% for well -performing dwellings without data manipulation, both with low uncertainties.