Spatio-temporal assessment and prediction of wetlands: Examining the changes in ecosystem service value of RAJUK DAP area using Artificial Neural Network and Geospatial Techniques

Wetlands are a crucial component of the earth's socio-ecological structure, providing significant ecosystem services to people. Changes in wetlands, driven by both natural and manmade causes, are altering these ecosystem services. Although Bangladesh is developing, natural resources like wetlands are changing in the country at different scales, with urban areas experiencing significant impacts. This study intends to evaluate the past, present, and future scenarios of wetlands and examine the changes in ecosystem service value (ESV) of the RAJUK (Rajdhani Unnayan Kartripakkha or Capital Development Authority) Detailed Area Plan (DAP) region. This research examined the effects of five different Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) classes on ESVs for 27 years from 1995 to 2022. Findings reveal that the current wetland area is 80.16 km2 2 in the post- monsoon season and 306.67 km2 2 in the pre-monsoon season. Composite post-monsoon wetland map from 1995 to 2015 that 19.48 km2 2 of wetlands are classified as hydro-ecologically consistent wetlands. Wetland area has decreased by 140.926 km2 2 between 1995 and 2022, according to simulations, and is predicted to do so by another 27.11 km2 2 during the following eight years. The total ESV of wetlands dropped by about 26.72 percent between 1995 and 2022, primarily due to conversion to habitation and agricultural use. Also, the projection of LULC and associated ESV for the year 2030 demonstrates how ESV evolves throughout this period and which LULC classes are more susceptible to change, while the kappa coefficient was used to compare the simulated models to the actual wetland area. The current study will undoubtedly be helpful to decision- makers who make a substantial contribution to preserving ecosystem services and the wetland landscape.