Tuberculosis case noti fi cations and outcomes in Peruvian prisons prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a national-level interrupted time series analysis

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has signi fi cantly disrupted tuberculosis (TB) programs, making it urgent to focus TB elimination efforts on key populations. People experiencing incarceration are at high risk for TB, however, how COVID-19-related disruptions have impacted incarcerated populations with TB is unknown. Methods Using Peruvian National TB Program data from Jan 2018 to Dec 2021, an interrupted time series of drugsusceptible (DS) TB case noti fi cations pre- and during COVID-19 was conducted (cut-off date: COVID-19 emergency declaration in Peru, 16 March 2020). The effect of TB care occurring pre-vs. during COVID-19 on TB treatment success in the incarcerated and non-incarcerated populations was explored using logistic regression. Findings DS-TB cases noti fi ed in prisons from Jan 2018 to Dec 2021 (n = 10,134) represented 10% of all cases noti fi ed in the country (n = 101,507). In the fi rst week of COVID-19, DS-TB case noti fi cations dropped by 61.2% (95% CI: 59.9 - 62.7%) in the non-incarcerated population and 17.7% (95% CI: 17.5 - 17.9%) among the incarcerated population. TB treatment success was signi fi cantly lower in people receiving TB care entirely during the COVID-19 pandemic vs. before COVID-19 in the non-incarcerated population (OR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.78 - 0.85), but not statistically signi fi cantly lower in the incarcerated population (OR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.76 - 1.01). Incarceration status was not found to modify the effect of COVID-19 period on TB treatment outcomes (OR: 1.07, 95% CI: 0.92 - 1.25), although treatment success was higher in the incarcerated population (OR [incarcerated vs. not incarcerated, pre-COVID]: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.39 - 1.67). Interpretation Both incarcerated and non-incarcerated populations experienced a large drop in DS-TB case noti fi cations (although higher in the non-incarcerated population). Lower TB treatment success among those receiving care during COVID-19 indicates signi fi cant TB service disruptions in the overall population. The fi nding that incarceration at time of diagnosis was associated with treatment success is plausible in Peru given increased screening and stricter treatment monitoring in prisons.