China's meat sector growth and US grain and oilseed exports

Given China's role as a dominant grain and oilseeds importer, any changes in Chinese policy can significantly affect exporting countries. We estimate how the domestic supply and demand factors determine China's grain and oilseed imports and project the impact on U.S. exports to China with changes in Chinese policies. The results indicate that China's policy on increasing domestic soybeans and corn production and decreasing meat consumption can considerably diminish the U.S. and its competitors' exports to China. The key policy implication is that the United States should actively seek out new export markets considering China's evolving supply and demand conditions.