Potential and health impact assessment of air pollutant emission reduction: a case study of China

Air pollution has become the world's largest human health and environmental risk factor. This study used the greenhouse gas and air pollution interactions and synergies model to analyze the emissions, emission reduction potential, and health impacts of atmospheric pollutants (SO2, NOx, and PM2.5) in 31 regions of China (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan). Meanwhile, the spatial aggregation of atmospheric pollutants was studied by combining the spatial autocorrelation Moran index. Research results indicate that under the background of implementing pollution control policies and advancing emission reduction technologies, the emissions of SO2 and NOx are expected to significantly decrease by 2030, demonstrating significant potential for emission reduction. Moreover, some regions in East China, such as Zhejiang, Shandong, and Jiangsu, with significant emission reduction and potential, exhibit relatively high GDP and power generation. This finding also includes regions with abundant and intensive energy reserves such as Shanxi. In addition, significant agglomeration effects and spatial regional differences in atmospheric pollutant emissions are observed. The results of spatial autocorrelation analysis show that by 2030, the spatial clustering level of SO2 emissions will be strengthened, whereas that of NOx emissions will be reduced. Furthermore, in terms of health impacts, a significant reduction in PM2.5 emissions and attributable deaths is forecasted by 2030. Among them, Guangdong Province has the highest reduction in PM2.5 attributable deaths, reaching 48,332 people, whereas Hainan Province has the highest reduction rate in PM2.5 attributable deaths, reaching 92%. Therefore, we should formulate reasonable emission reduction measures to promote high-quality economic and social development in the region.