Greenhouse Gas Savings Potential under Repowering of Onshore Wind Turbines and Climate Change: A Case Study from Germany

Wind energy is crucial in German energy and climate strategies as it substitutes carbon-intensive fossil fuels and achieves substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions. However, wind energy deployment currently faces several problems: low expansion rates, wind turbines at the end of their service life, or the end of remuneration. Repowering is a vital strategy to overcome these problems. This study investigates future annual GHG payback times and emission savings of repowered wind turbines. In total, 96 repowering scenarios covering a broad range of climatological, technical, economic, and political factors affecting wind energy output in 2025-2049 were studied. The results indicate that due to more giant wind turbines and geographical restrictions, the amount of repowerable sites is reduced significantly. Consequently, in most scenarios, emission savings will dramatically diminish compared to current savings. Even in the best-case scenario, the highest emission savings' growth is at 11%. The most meaningful drivers of GHG payback time and emission savings are wind turbine type, geographical restrictions, and GHG emissions. In contrast, climate change impact on the wind resource is only marginal. Although repowering alone is insufficient for achieving climate targets, it is a substantial part of the wind energy strategy. It could be improved by the synergies of different measures presented in this study. The results emphasize that a massive expansion of wind energy is required to establish it as a cornerstone of the future energy mix.