Effects of cultivar, planting density and rootstock on long-term economic performance of apple orchards in the Northeastern US

An economic analysis of profitability using Net Present Value (NPV) was conducted using data from two longterm training system x rootstock field trials conducted in New York State from 2006 to 2016 (Dressel Farm in southeastern New York State and VandeWalle Farm in Western, New York State). We used trial data for the first 11 years and estimated values for years 12-20 using average data from the last 4 years of field data. The field trials compared four training systems with different planting densities (Slender Pyramid, 840 trees ha- 1; Vertical Axis, 1282 trees ha- 1; Slender Axis, 2244 trees ha- 1; and Tall Spindle, 3262 trees ha- 1) each evaluated with several rootstocks in an incomplete factorial treatment list and with two cultivars at each location. By the end of the trial (11 years) all combinations of planting density, rootstock and cultivar were profitable (NPV positive) at the VandeWalle site but at the Dressel site seven combinations of rootstock and planting density with 'Fuji' and two combinations with 'Gala' were not profitable. Projected profitability over 20 years using estimated yields and fruit quality for years 12-20 showed that all combinations would be profitable by year 20. Estimated 20-year NPV was greatest with the Tall Spindle system with the highest planting density compared to the other lower density systems. Economic performance was mostly driven by planting density, regardless of the rootstock selection. Among cultivars, 'Honeycrisp' had significantly higher profitability largely due to high fruit price). 'Gala' had intermediate profitability due to high yields and medium fruit price while 'Fuji' which had low fruit price had significantly lower profitability than 'Gala'. Among rootstocks, there was a significant interaction with training system and cultivar, so the same rootstock was not the most profitable with every cultivar and system. With 'Fuji' the most profitable combination was on G.16 rootstock planted at the highest density, however, it was not significantly better than with G.11 or M.9. With 'Gala' at Dressel farm the most profitable combination was on G.11 in the Tall Spindle system (planted at the highest density) but it was not significantly better than with G.16, G.41, M.9 or B.9. With 'Gala' at VandeWalle farm the most profitable combination was on G.41 planted at the highest density but it was not significantly better than on G.11, G.16, M.9 or B.9. With 'Honeycrisp' the most profitable combination was on M.9 planted at the highest density but it was not significantly better than G.11, G.16, G.41 or B.9. A sensitivity analysis showed that among economic parameters affecting the long-term profitability of an orchard, fruit price and yield were vastly more important than other factors. Of intermediate importance were the discount rate and labor costs while of much lesser importance were tree costs and land costs.