How to reduce household food waste during and after the COVID-19 lockdown? Evidence from a structural model

The COVID-19 lockdown precipitated a fundamental shift in consumer food-related behaviours. Owing to adherence to stay-at-home directives and concerns over potential exposure to the coronavirus, consumers engaged in less frequent in-person shopping, opting for larger quantities of food purchased per trip, a trend with the potential to exacerbate food wastage patterns among bulk food purchasers. Nevertheless, recent empirical data obtained from the United Kingdom have revealed a 34% reduction in household food waste during the nationwide lockdown in April 2020. To gain deeper insights into the underlying mechanisms governing household food waste behaviours, we employ an infinite horizon dynamic stochastic model that operates on a daily cycle, focusing specifically on household food inventory management. Our analysis demonstrates that absent any improvements in food management practices, panic-stricken consumers who stockpiled food at home during the early phase of the pandemic generated significantly higher levels of food waste. Conversely, consumers who embraced effective food management techniques and transitioned to online grocery shopping managed to reduce household food waste by about 50% during the pandemic. Additionally, we conduct simulations to envision potential post-pandemic scenarios and conclude the study with a set of recommendations aimed at curbing household food waste in the aftermath of the pandemic.