Pathways linking watershed development and riparian quality to stream water quality and fish communities: Insights from 233 subbasins of the Great Lakes region

Anthropogenic stressors such as urban development, agricultural runoff, and riparian zone degradation impair stream water quality and biodiversity. However, the intricate pathways that connect these stressors at watershed and riparian scales to stream ecosystems-and their interplay with climate and hydrology-remain understudied. In this study, we used Partial Least Squares (PLS) path modeling to examine these pathways and their collective impacts on stream water quality and fish community structures across 233 watersheds in the Great Lakes region. Our study suggests that moderate levels of watershed development enhance overall fish richness, potentially due to increased water temperature and nutrient availability, but reduces both the percentages and richness of cold water and intolerant taxa. Riparian quality exerts indirect effects on water quality with climate and stream order serving as key mediators. Complementing our SEM analysis, we also used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models and identified a significant positive relationship between the proportion of clay and agricultural land with TN concentrations. However, TP concentrations are influenced by a more complex set of interactions involving developed areas, soil, and slope. These findings emphasize the necessity of adopting integrated management strategies to preserve the health and integrity of freshwater ecosystems in the Great Lakes region. These strategies should integrate watershed and riparian protection measures while also taking into account the effects of climate change and specific local conditions.