A novel clinical prediction model for in-hospital mortality in sepsis patients complicated by ARDS: A MIMIC IV database and external validation study

Background: Sepsis complicated by ARDS significantly increases morbidity and mortality, underscoring the need for robust predictive models to enhance patient management. Methods: We collected data on 6390 patients with ARDS-complicated sepsis from the MIMIC IV database. Following rigorous data cleaning, including outlier management, handling missing values, and transforming variables, we conducted univariate analysis and logistic multivariate regression. We employed the LASSO machine learning algorithm to identify risk factors closely associated with patient outcomes. These factors were then used to develop a new clinical prediction model. The model underwent preliminary assessment and internal validation, and its performance was further tested through external validation using data from 225 patients at a major tertiary hospital in China. This validation assessed the model's discrimination, calibration, and net clinical benefits. Results: The model, illustrated by a concise nomogram, demonstrated significant discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.711 in the internal validation set and 0.771 in the external validation set, outperforming conventional severity scores such as the SOFA and SAPS II. It also showed good calibration and net clinical benefits. Conclusions: Our model serves as a valuable tool for identifying sepsis patients with ARDS at high risk of in -hospital mortality. This could enable the implementation of personalized treatment strategies, potentially improving patient outcomes.