Safety or change? The 2023 Australian voice referendum

The 2023 Australian Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum joined the 37 other referendums which have been defeated since federation, out of a total of 45 referendums. In contrast to the 1967 referendum on Indigenous Australians, which attracted a record majority of 90.8 percent, the Voice referendum gained just 39.9 percent support. This paper uses a large, nationally representative survey to explain voting in the Voice referendum and to compare it with the 1999 republic referendum. The results show that the absence of bipartisanship on the Voice resulted in voters prioritizing the potential risks of constitutional change over the prospect of better outcomes for Indigenous people. In the absence of bipartisanship, voters opted for safety over change - as they did in the 1999 republic referendum and in other unsuccessful referendums.