Minimal Residual Disease using a Plasma-Only Circulating Tumor DNA Assay to Predict Recurrence of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Following Curative Intent Treatment

Purpose: Minimal residual disease (MRD) detection can identify the recurrence in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) following definitive treatment. We evaluated a plasma-only MRD assay to predict recurrence and survival in patients with metastatic CRC who underwent curative intent procedures (surgery and/or radiotherapy), with or without (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy. The primary objective of this study was to assess the correlation of postprocedure tumor cell-free DNA detection status with radiographic disease recurrence. Experimental Design: Preprocedure and postprocedure longitudinal samples were collected from 53 patients and analyzed with a multiomic MRD assay detecting circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) from genomic and epigenomic signals. Preprocedure and postprocedure ctDNA detection correlated with recurrence-free and overall survival (OS). Results: From 52 patients, 230/233 samples were successfully analyzed. At the time of data cutoff, 36 (69.2%) patients recurred with median follow-up of 31 months. Detectable ctDNA was observed in 19/42 patients (45.2%) with ctDNA analyzed 3 weeks postprocedure. ctDNA detection 3 weeks postprocedure was associated with shorter median recurrence-free survival (RFS; HR, 5.27; 95% CI, 2.31-12.0; P < 0.0001) and OS (HR, 12.83; 95% CI, 3.6-45.9; P < 0.0001). Preprocedure ctDNA detection status was not associated with RFS but was associated with improved OS (HR, 4.65; 95% CI, 1.4-15.2; P = 0.0111). Undetectable ctDNA preprocedure had notable long-term OS, >90% 3 years postprocedure. Conclusions: In this cohort of oligometastatic CRC, detection of ctDNA preprocedure or postprocedure was associated with inferior outcomes even after accounting for known prognostic clinicopathologic variables. This suggests ctDNA may enhance current risk stratification methods helping the evaluation of novel treatments and surveillance strategies toward improving patient outcomes.