Population ecology and habitat suitability modelling of an endangered and endemic medicinal plant Meconopsis aculeata Royle under projected climate change in the Himalaya

The Himalayan region is home to the endangered and endemic medicinal plant, Meconopsis aculeata. Habitat degradation due to overexploitation and unscientific collection of the species in recent years has caused the restricted distribution range of species across its range. Therefore, the present study was conducted in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region (4.5 million km2 area) to study population ecology and identify suitable habitats for the habitat distribution modelling under projected climate change to monitor and restore the dwindling populations. Ten sites/populations (20 x 20 m plot) of M. aculeata have been studied. East aspect (5 sites) and rocky habitat (04 sites) represented the maximum number of sites. The density of M. aculeata has a significant negative correlation with slope and available potassium in soil. The MaxEnt algorithm, species occurrence data and environmental variables were used in the current study. CMIP6 project's MIROC6 and BCC-CSM2-MR climate change models were used to identify the potential distribution area for the future under the SSP245 and SSP370 scenarios for the period 2081-2100. The results showed the satisfactory quality of models based on the True-SkillStatistic (0.838 +/- 0.149), Area-Under-Curve values (0.958 +/- 0.038), and the Receiver-Operating-Characteristic curves. MaxEnt predicted that 1,78,993 km2 (4.10 %) area is favourable for the occurrence of the species. The precipitation of the driest quarter, precipitation of the coldest quarter and elevation were the most influential variables for habitat suitability prediction. The distribution area with an increase in greenhouse gases shows a decrease in the period 2081-2100 in both SSPs and GCMs. The study predicted highly suitable areas that would play a vital role in in situ conservation and improving the status of species. The predicted distribution maps of the species would help policymakers and decision-makers in developing suitable management plans, which will ultimately help in the conservation of species.