Prediction of urban ultrafine particle emission fluxes using generalized additive models

被引:0
|
作者
Bitz, Tobias [1 ]
Gerling, Lars [2 ]
Meier, Fred [3 ]
Weber, Stephan [1 ]
机构
[1] Tech Univ Carolo Wilhelmina Braunschweig, Inst Geoecol, Climatol & Environm Meteorol, Langer Kamp 19c, D-38106 Braunschweig, Germany
[2] GEO NET Umweltconsulting GmbH, Grosse Pfahlstr 5a, D-30161 Hannover, Germany
[3] Tech Univ Berlin, Inst Ecol, Climatol, Rothenburgstr 12, D-12165 Berlin, Germany
关键词
Ultrafine particle number fluxes; Urban air quality; Generalized additive models; Statistical model; Eddy covariance; Particle emissions; SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS; LAND-USE; NUMBER; PARAMETERIZATION; VARIABILITY; DYNAMICS;
D O I
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120677
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Ultrafine particles (UFP) are abundant in urban atmospheres. To assess the strength and temporal variation of urban UFP emission sources, information on the surface-atmosphere exchange, i.e. the turbulent vertical flux of particles, is vital. A three-year time series of UFP emission fluxes (FUFP) observed at an urban site in Berlin, Germany, using the eddy covariance technique was utilized to develop and evaluate generalized additive models (GAM) for FUFP. GAM allow to account for non-linear relationships between response and predictor variables. Two separate models for summer and winter were developed. The predictors that most strongly influenced modelled FUFP in the summer model were traffic activity, friction velocity, land use, air temperature and PM10 concentration, whereas the winter model additionally incorporated relative humidity. The GAM were evaluated by ten-fold cross-validation for the first two study years, and by predicting the third year based on the model trained with observational data of the first two years. The coefficients of determination of the two validation methods were R2 = 0.52 (uncertainty of -47 to 88% for FUFP) and R2 = 0.48 (-45 to 82% for FUFP) for the winter model, whereas the summer model yielded R2 = 0.48 and 0.44 (uncertainty of -51 to 102%). GAM were shown to successfully capture the non-linear relationships between predictor variables and FUFP for the three-year data set at this urban site.
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页数:15
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