UN Peacekeeping Forces and Peace Negotiations in Africa

The aim of this article is to identify the factors underlying the success of peace negotiations in Africa, with particular emphasis on the role of UN peacekeepers. We analyze African Peace Processes (APP) data over the period 1989-2019 using the binary logistic model. Our results show that the deployment of UN peacekeepers is associated with the success of mediation efforts, both in intra-state and non-state conflicts. On the other hand, the presence of peacekeepers is detrimental to the success of bilateral negotiations. These results thus highlight that the ambiguity surrounding the effectiveness of UN forces in the peaceful management of conflicts depends on the presence or absence of a mediator. Consequently, political decision-makers should combine the deployment of peacekeeping forces with mediation initiatives to achieve peaceful conflict management. On the other hand, this should not be envisaged within the framework of bilateral negotiations, at the risk of producing opposite effects.