Population decline of the saguaro cactus throughout its distribution is associated with climate change

Background and Aims Climate change is a global phenomenon affecting species, which in arid regions will translate into more frequent and intense periods of drought. The Sonoran Desert is becoming hotter and drier, and many organisms are rapidly changing in abundance and distribution. These population attributes depend directly on the dynamics of the population, which in turn depends on the vital rates of its individuals; yet few studies have documented the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of keystone species such as the saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea). Although saguaros have traits that enable them to withstand present environmental conditions, climate change could make them vulnerable if forced beyond their tolerance limits.Methods We evaluated the effect of climate change on 13 saguaro populations spanning most of the species' distribution range. Using field data from 2014 to 2016, we built an integral projection model (IPM) describing the environmentally explicit dynamics of the populations. We used this IPM, along with projections of two climate change scenarios and one no-change scenario, to predict population sizes (N) and growth rates (lambda) from 2017 to 2099 and compared these scenarios to demonstrate the effect of climate change on the future of saguaro cactuses.Key Results We found that all populations will decline, mainly due to future increases in drought, mostly hindering recruitment. However, the decline will be different across populations, since those located near the coast will be affected by harsher drought events than those located further inland.Conclusions Our study demonstrates that climate change and its associated increase in drought pose a significant threat to the saguaro cactus populations in the Sonoran Desert. Our findings indicate that the recruitment of saguaros, vital for establishing new individuals, is particularly vulnerable to intensifying drought conditions. Importantly, regional climate trends will have different impacts on saguaro populations across their distribution range.