Spatio-temporal variations of habitat quality in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay, based on LUCC and simulation

Context. Habitat quality (HQ) is vital for achieving sustainable regional development. Understanding the spatial patterns and temporal evolution of HQ in the context of land use-cover change (LUCC) is crucial for promoting ecological civilisation and high-quality growth, especially for regions with rapid economic development. Aims. In order to analyse the impact of LUCC on habitat quality in the coastal areas with frequent human activities. Methods. This study focused on the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay and analysed the HQ on the basis of LUCC data during 2010-2020 by using the InVEST model and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Additionally, land-use data for multiple scenarios in 2030 were predicted using the PLUS model, and the variations in land use and HQ in the study region during 2020-2030 were assessed. Key results. During 2010-2020, the construction land in the region expanded by 1932.79 km(2), primarily at the expense of cropland and water areas. The mean HQ values were 0.6287, 0.6181 and 0.6037 for 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively, indicating a continuous decline. Spatially, HQ exhibited strong clustering during this period. However, there was a clear trend of fragmentation and reduction in 'high-high' cluster areas along the coast, mostly owing to the transformation of water areas and wetlands into construction land and cropland. In the projected scenarios (natural development, ND; economic development, ED; crop protection, CP; and ecological protection, EP) for 2030, the mean HQ values are estimated to be 0.5881, 0.5837, 0.5915 and 0.5965 respectively. Compared with 2020, there will be a certain decrease in HQ, with the EP scenario showing the lowest decrease of 0.0052. Conclusions. The HQ changes were closely linked to LUCC, the construction-land expansion was the main cause of HQ destruction in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay. To alleviate the trend of declining HQ, it is essential to select appropriate development scenarios for each city in the region and coordinate the development of the cities. Implications. These findings provide valuable insights for promoting sustainable economic growth in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay.