Anticipating the Future of Capital Market and Investment Climate in Indonesia: A Scenario Personarrative Approach

Capital markets are essential for a country's development. However, the effort to develop a sustainable capital market may be challenged by many uncertainties, such as pandemics, politics, and investor behavior. This study aims to unveil the future of Indonesia's capital market and provide implications and options for stakeholders to develop a best -practice capital market. The scenario personarrative method, including cluster analysis, is used in this research as it can complement each other by signifying options to different types of investors. Data were gathered from interviews with 25 experts and a questionnaire survey of 438 respondents. With an analysis emphasizing the government's political direction and regulator ability, four transformative scenarios were constructed: (1) thin bull in the pastureland, (2) facing Torero in the bullring, (3) train the circus bull, and (4) world -champion bull. Eight personas were described, each with unique characteristics. Finally, 32 behavioral narratives were constructed based on the four scenarios and eight personas with the options provided. These results benefit stakeholders when deciding on acting in Indonesia's capital market. It is recommended that stakeholders carefully consider ensuring that Indonesia's capital market can achieve the world champion bull scenario in 2030.