The change of material flows and environmental impacts along with future upgrading scenarios of NCM battery in China

The battery electric vehicle (BEV) industry, commanding over half of the global market share in China, has garnered significant attention in response to escalating concerns about climate change. NCM (LiNixCoyMnzO2) batteries, prized for their high energy density, are pivotal in this industry. However, their production relies on critical metals, posing environmental challenges. Recycling processes aim to address this issue by recovering critical metals from end-of-life batteries. The industry is updating from NCM 111 to NCM 811 batteries to enhance energy density and reduce costs, but the key factors influencing the material flows and environmental impacts remain uncertain. This paper aims to identify the key factors contributing to the potential differences in material flows and environmental impacts introduced by the NCM battery upgrading in China. Following the new energy vehicle sales projections in China until 2035, a dynamic material flow analysis was employed to calculate material demands, recovered amounts, and substitution rates for various upgrading scenarios. The study reveals that the majority of retired batteries until 2035 were sold between 2022 and 2029. Material substitution rates prove to be more sensitive to the upgrading scenario than the lifetime and growth rate of BEVs. Faster NCM 811 penetration results in over 2.5 times more saved cobalt demand compared to additional nickel demand. A life cycle assessment of NCM batteries reveals a 39% lower global warming impact for NCM 811 compared to NCM 111, highlighting environmental benefits from increased energy density and reduced cobalt consumption. The energy density improvement contributed 85%, while the alteration in material composition contributed 15% to the global warming reduction in NCM 811. Recycling emerges as a crucial strategy in mitigating environmental impacts across all categories, particularly addressing eutrophication, previously deemed challenging due to the difficulty in recovering Li2CO3.