Estimating the penetration rate of tunnel boring machines via gradient boosting algorithms

The prediction of tunnel boring machine (TBM) performance from the rate of penetration (ROP) point of view has yet to draw a lot of attention since it is one of the main challenges for excavation with TBMs. This study examined six tunnels excavated with TBM to develop predictive models of the ROP estimation using five algorithms: Gradient Boosting (GB), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), and CatBoost (categorical-features-include-GB). A dataset has been developed, including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Rock Type, the distance between planes of weakness (DPW), and thrust force (TF), and contains more than 575 data points for each parameter. The developed models showed that the XGBoost model outperformed the other models, followed by the CatBoost, according to seven different evaluation metrics used to rank the models when the models were modeled with the default values of the algorithm parameters. After tuning the hyperparameters, the GB model outperformed the others, while the other models remained relatively unchanged. By using the overall ranking according to the metrics and considering the parameter tuning time, XGBoost and CatBoost were presented as the two best models. SHAP (Shapley additive explanations: an explainable artificial intelligence tool) values and dependency plots showed that the TF has the highest impact on the ROP, followed by UCS, Rock Type, and DPW. It is concluded that the XGBoost and CatBoost models, with coefficients of determination of 0.9878 and 0.9682, respectively, may be used for estimating the TBM penetration rate for similar rock types.