Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Urban Industry in Modern China (1840-1949): A Case Study of Nanjing

In modern China, industrialization has formed a critical foundation for the transition to modernization. However, the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of urban industrial development in Nanjing from 1840 to 1949 remain unclear. Based on textual historical sources, this study examined the spatiotemporal patterns of urban industrial development in Nanjing from 1840 to 1949 by using spatial analysis methods, GeoDetector, regression models and industrial structure indices. The results reveal the following: (1) The overall spatial distribution pattern of the industry in modern Nanjing exhibited a "one main, one secondary" dual-center "ladle-shaped" arrangement. Over time, industry has expanded from the urban center toward the east and north. (2) The modernization level of different industries was uneven, exhibiting a "center-periphery" spatial pattern. (3) At the micro level, transportation and population density were the primary influencing factors for industrial location, whereas at the macro level, government intervention mainly affected the industrialization pattern. (4) The industrial development pattern in modern Nanjing, in alignment with the "pole-axis" spatial system, serves as a microcosm of China's urban modernization transition. This study represents the application of GIS methods in the humanities and provides valuable insights for urban planning and development.