Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States

被引：72

作者：

Davis, Kimberley T. ^{[1
,50
]}

Robles, Marcos D. ^{[2
]}

Kemp, Kerry B. ^{[3
,4
]}

Higuera, Philip E. ^{[1
]}

Chapman, Teresa ^{[5
]}

Metlen, Kerry L. ^{[3
]}

Peeler, Jamie L. ^{[1
]}

Rodman, Kyle C. ^{[6
]}

Woolley, Travis ^{[7
]}

Addington, Robert N. ^{[8
]}

Buma, Brian J. ^{[9
]}

Cansler, C. Alina ^{[10
,11
]}

Case, Michael J. ^{[12
]}

Collins, Brandon M. ^{[13
]}

Coop, Jonathan D. ^{[14
]}

Dobrowski, Solomon Z. ^{[11
]}

Gill, Nathan S. ^{[15
]}

Haffey, Collin ^{[16
]}

Harris, Lucas B. ^{[17
]}

Harvey, Brian J. ^{[10
]}

Haugo, Ryan D. ^{[3
]}

Hurteau, Matthew D. ^{[18
]}

Kulakowski, Dominik ^{[19
]}

Littlefield, Caitlin E. ^{[20
]}

McCauley, Lisa A. ^{[2
]}

Povak, Nicholas ^{[21
]}

Shive, Kristen L. ^{[22
]}

Smith, Edward ^{[22
]}

Stevens, Jens T. ^{[18
]}

Stevens-Rumann, Camille S. ^{[23
,24
]}

Taylor, Alan H. ^{[17
,25
]}

Tepley, Alan J. ^{[26
]}

Young, Derek J. N. ^{[27
]}

Andrus, Robert A. ^{[28
]}

Battaglia, Mike A. ^{[29
]}

Berkey, Julia K. ^{[30
]}

Busby, Sebastian U. ^{[31
]}

Carlson, Amanda R. ^{[32
]}

Chambers, Marin E. ^{[24
]}

Dodson, Erich Kyle ^{[33
]}

Donato, Daniel C. ^{[10
,34
]}

Downing, William M. ^{[35
]}

Fornwalt, Paula J. ^{[29
]}

Halofsky, Joshua S. ^{[10
,34
]}

Hoffman, Ashley ^{[19
]}

Holz, Andres ^{[31
]}

Iniguez, Jose M. ^{[36
]}

Krawchuk, Meg A. ^{[35
]}

Kreider, Mark R. ^{[11
]}

Larson, Andrew J. ^{[11
,37
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Montana, Dept Ecosyst & Conservat Sci, Missoula, MT 59812 USA

[2] Nature Conservancy, Tucson, AZ 85719 USA

[3] Nature Conservancy, Portland, OR 97214 USA

[4] US Forest Serv, Reg Ecol Program 6, Wenatchee, WA 98801 USA

[5] Nature Conservancy, Monitoring Evaluat & Learning Program, Chief Conservat Off, Arlington, VA 22201 USA

[6] No Arizona Univ, Ecol Restorat Inst, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA

[7] Nature Conservancy, Flagstaff, AZ 86001 USA

[8] Nature Conservancy, Boulder, CO 80302 USA

[9] Univ Colorado, Dept Integrat Biol, Denver, CO 80204 USA

[10] Univ Washington, Sch Environm & Forest Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[11] Univ Montana, Dept Forest Management, Missoula, MT 59812 USA

[12] Nature Conservancy, Seattle, WA 98121 USA

[13] Univ Calif Berkeley, Ctr Fire Res & Outreach, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[14] Western Colorado Univ, Sch Environm & Sustainabil, Gunnison, CO 81231 USA

[15] Texas Tech Univ, Dept Nat Resources Management, Lubbock, TX 79409 USA

[16] Nat Resources Div, New Mexico Forestry Div, Minerals, Energy, Santa Fe, NM 87505 USA

[17] Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[18] Univ New Mexico, Dept Biol, Albuquerque, NM 87131 USA

[19] Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Worcester, MA 01610 USA

[20] Conservat Sci Partners, Truckee, CA 96161 USA

[21] US Forest Serv, Pacific Southwest Res Stn, Placerville, CA 95667 USA

[22] Nature Conservancy, Sacramento, CA 95811 USA

[23] Colorado State Univ, Forest & Rangeland Stewardship Dept, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA

[24] Colorado State Univ, Colorado Forest Restorat Inst, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA

[25] Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[26] Cal Poly Humboldt Univ, Dept Forestry Fire & Rangeland Management, Arcata, CA 95521 USA

[27] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Plant Sci, Davis, CA 95616 USA

[28] Washington State Univ, Sch Environm, Pullman, WA 99164 USA

[29] US Forest Serv, Rocky Mt Res Stn, Ft Collins, CO 80526 USA

[30] Montana Dept Nat Resources & Conservat, Missoula, MT 59806 USA

[31] Portland State Univ, Dept Geog, Portland, OR 97207 USA

[32] Univ Wisconsin, Dept Forest & Wildlife Ecol, Madison, WI 53706 USA

[33] US Forest Serv, Rocky Mt Res Stn, Ogden, UT 84401 USA

[34] Washington State Dept Nat Resources, Olympia, WA 98504 USA

[35] Oregon State Univ, Coll Forestry, Dept Forest Ecosyst & Soc, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA

[36] US Forest Serv, Rocky Mt Res Stn, USDA, Flagstaff, AZ 86001 USA

[37] Univ Montana, Wilderness Inst, Missoula, MT 59812 USA

[38] Univ N Carolina, Dept Environm Sci, Wilmington, NC 28403 USA

[39] Vibrant Planet, Incline Village, NV 89451 USA

[40] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Davis, CA 95616 USA

[41] Nature Conservancy, Missoula, MT 59802 USA

[42] Colorado State Univ, Dept Anthropol & Geog, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA

[43] Colorado State Univ, Grad Degree Program Ecol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA

[44] No Arizona Univ, Sch Forestry, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA

[45] Univ Wisconsin, Dept Integrat Biol, Madison, WI 53706 USA

[46] US Forest Serv, USDA, Rocky Mt Res Stn, Reno, NV 89512 USA

[47] Utah State Univ, Dept Wildland Resources, Logan, UT 84322 USA

[48] Utah State Univ, Ecol Ctr, Logan, UT 84322 USA

[49] Murdoch Univ, Environm & Conservat Sci, Perth, WA 6150, Australia

[50] US Forest Serv, Missoula Fire Sci Lab, Rocky Mt Res Stn, USDA, Missoula, MT 59808 USA

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | 2023年 / 120卷 / 11期

关键词：

climate change; wildfire; ecological transformation; post-fire regeneration; vegetation transition; FUEL TREATMENTS; REGIME CHANGE; FORESTS; DISTURBANCE; DIMENSIONS; THRESHOLD; WILDFIRES; DROUGHT;

D O I：

10.1073/pnas.2208120120

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of chang-ing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establish-ment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low-and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed avail-ability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.

引用

页数：9