Assessment and Driving Factors of Embodied Carbon Emissions in the Construction Sector: Evidence from 2005 to 2021 in Northeast China

Reducing embodied carbon emissions in the construction sector is pivotal for achieving sustainable development goals, mainly those related to health and well-being, sustainable cities and communities, and climate action. Hence, it is crucial to delve into the trends and influencing factors of construction-embodied carbon, especially in countries like China, where extensive construction projects are underway. Previous studies have investigated carbon emissions at both national and regional levels, whereas research specific to the construction sector in Northeast China remains limited. This study assessed the embodied carbon of the construction sector in Northeast China from 2005 to 2021. The results indicated that embodied carbon initially rose before declining, peaking at 278.9 MtCO2e in 2012. Based on the Logistic Mean Divided Index (LMDI) approach, the variations in embodied carbon were decomposed into seven driving factors, including emission source structure, embodied carbon intensity, construction mechanization, machinery requirement, industrial structure, economic development, and population scale. While construction mechanization and economic development were identified as primary drivers of the changes in embodied carbon, carbon emission intensity and population scale exerted inhibiting effects on the rise. Moreover, potential strategies for mitigating construction-embodied carbon in Northeast China were delineated, underscoring the regionality across different provinces. The results and suggestions can help foster a low-carbon construction industry from a provincial perspective.