Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction Paths for Ships in the Yangtze River: The Perspective of Alternative Fuels

In recent years, carbon emission reduction in the shipping sector has increasingly garnered scholarly attention. This study delves into the pathways for carbon emission reduction in shipping across the Yangtze River, emphasizing fuel alternatives. It initiates by introducing a novel ship carbon emission calculation methodology predicated on voyage data, followed by the development of a predictive model for ship carbon emissions tailored to specific voyages. Then, emission reduction scenarios for various voyage categories are designed and exemplary alternative fuels selected to assess their potential for emission mitigation. Subsequently, scenario analysis is employed to scrutinize the CO2 emission trajectories under diverse conditions, pinpointing the most efficacious route for carbon emission abatement for inland vessels. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The results indicate that accelerating the adoption of alternative fuels for long-distance cargo ships would greatly accelerate the development of environmentally friendly shipping. Under a scenario prioritizing zero-carbon growth, emissions from inland vessels are anticipated to reach their zenith by 2040. These findings can provide theoretical guidance for emission reductions in inland shipping and effectively promote the green and sustainable development of the shipping sector.