Having Children and the Well-Being of Young Families: How Are They Related?

The article presents the main results of an assessment of the impact of economic well-being on fertility in Russia. Interest in this topic stems from the contrast between the recent decline in the fertility rate of the Russian Federation and the significant increase in fertility during the first decade after the government implemented measures to boost the birth rate and support families. The study is based on available microdata from the Statistical Survey of Income and Participation in Social Programs (SSIPSP) conducted annually by Rosstat. The population studied consisted of young families, and the following factors were selected as determinants of material living conditions: household income, earnings of family members, social benefits, workdays of paid employment, access to plots land, housing conditions, and the population of the communities in which the families permanently reside. The list of factors was limited by the scope of SSIPSP questionnaires and the sample size. Statistical models were used to assess the combined influence of the factors studied on the probability that a young family would have children. Subsets of the most influential and statistically significant factors were identified, and the factors included in the models were ranked by their relative importance. Identifying the most important determinants of the birth rate in Russia may inform potential corrective public policy measures aimed at counteracting the country's current trend toward depopulation. This study should be useful in adjusting current family and childhood support measures, which have not had the intended effect on fertility for several years.