Possibility and pathways of China's nonferrous metals industry to achieve its carbon peak target before 2030: A new integrated dynamic forecasting model

The Chinese government has mandated that the nonferrous metals industry (NMI) achieve carbon peaking before 2030. Consequently, nonscientific mitigation measures, such as indiscriminate closure of production lines, have been implemented. An appropriate carbon peak pathway must be developed NMI. This study designs three carbon peaking pathways for two subsectors within the industrial chain of the NMI according to the latest industry policies and industry characteristics. Subsequently, a novel integrated dynamic assessment model is constructed in this study to evaluate the probability of carbon peaking under various pathways and choose an appropriate one. Results indicate that: (1) Under the baseline development pathway, the likelihood of meeting the target as anticipated is 61.6 % for the nonferrous metal mining and processing industry (MS) and 9.9 % for the nonferrous metal smelting and refining industry (SS). (2) The low-carbon scenario is the most suitable development path for both subsectors. Under this pathway, the likelihood of MS and SS reaching their targets on time increases to 100 % and 87.4 %, respectively. MS likely peaked in 2013, with a peak at 28 Mt. SS is projected to peak in carbon emissions by 2025, with the highest probability of peaking between 417.6 Mt and 424.5 Mt. If no fluctuations will takes place during the implementation of low-carbon policies, then the peak would occur at 423.9 Mt (3) In this pathway, the industrial value added and energy intensity have the greatest influence on the probability of missing the deadline. This study enriches prediction methods for CO2 emissions and offers guidance to the Chinese nonferrous metal industry for effectively achieving the peak carbon target.